According to the most recent filing data, USCIS received 9,878 I-526E submissions from early 2022 through January 2025—but only about 16% of these have been adjudicated. This leaves a noticeable volume of I-526E filings that have yet to be processed, mostly from the urban category. (Rural adjudications are consistently getting faster, as reflected in the USCIS data.)
What is more, the Department of State issued a backlog warning for the EB-5 visa in its January 2025 Visa Bulletin. But as of June 2025, no backlog has yet been announced for either the urban or rural EB-5 categories.
With the significant volume of pending I-526E cases, why has the EB-5 visa not yet entered retrogression?
The answer lies in both the rural category’s ample supply of visas and the comparatively small number of adjudications for the urban category.
In this post, we analyze the latest I-526E filing data from USCIS to determine how EB-5 applicants should move forward, keeping in mind a possible future backlog. For the current fiscal year, however, there are still 4,274 visas left for the rural category, an ample supply for investors in this category.
EB-5 Visa Backlogs Explained
Why Is There No EB-5 Backlog Yet?
What’s Next for EB-5 Investors?
Strategic Approaches for EB-5 Investors
EB-5 Visa Backlogs Explained
Visa retrogression—sometimes called a visa backlog—occurs when the number of individuals qualifying for immigrant visas in a particular category and country exceeds the annual numerical limit allocated to that visa category and country. When this happens, the Department of State establishes a cut-off date in its monthly Visa Bulletin.
A cut-off date establishes when applicants can move forward—only applicants whose priority dates fall earlier than the cut-off date may proceed.
At first glance, today’s EB-5 market seems destined for an imminent backlog. Again, by January 31, 2025, USCIS had accepted 9,878 Form I-526E petitions, representing thousands of investors and their dependent family members, yet fewer than 16% of those filings had been adjudicated. Because every principal applicant may reserve visas for a spouse and qualifying children, the eventual visa demand generated by these pending petitions comfortably exceeds the annual pool of EB-5 visas.
And yet, the EB-5 visa supply remains current for most nationalities and all three set-aside categories created by the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA): rural, high-unemployment urban, and infrastructure.
While it may initially seem counterintuitive, the lack of a backlog can be attributed to a comparatively low adjudication volume for the urban category.
Why Is There No EB-5 Backlog Yet?
During the period covered by the latest USCIS data release (early 2022 through January 2025), the agency approved roughly 1,477 rural and urban I-526E petitions, with most of these approvals coming in the rural category.
Priority processing for rural projects, mandated by the RIA, has clearly led to faster processing for rural applicants. Of the 4,329 rural filings received through January 2025, approximately 27% had been adjudicated—more than three times the urban adjudication rate. Meanwhile, only 361 of 5,191 urban filings had been processed. In practical terms, one rural petition has been decided for every 13 urban petitions left untouched since February 2023.
Since approvals—not applications—trigger visa allocation, and since most urban I-526E filings are still pending, the number of approved applications has not cut into the urban visa supply.
Additionally, with such a modest approval speed for urban filings, USCIS is unlikely to exhaust the fiscal-year quota of visas in any category. Any unused visas would then be carried forward into the next year. As a result, the queue remains technically open even while a “hidden” reserve of future demand accumulates.
The set-asides categories themselves also make it harder to predict when a backlog might occur.
Every fiscal year, 20% of all EB-5 visas are reserved for rural investors, 10% for high-unemployment urban investors, and 2% for infrastructure investors. Notably, unused set-aside numbers trickle into the non-reserved pool, but unused non-reserved numbers never get added to the set-aside categories. As a consequence of this breakdown, the visa supply is depleted unevenly.
For example, the non-reserved category already shows backlogs and cut-off dates for China and India because the pre-RIA visa demand long ago outstripped the visa supply.
Going forward, the rural or urban category could experience its own country-specific backlog even while another subcategory remains current. Based on the current numbers, urban seems to be the more likely category to become backlogged.
The January 2025 Visa Bulletin explicitly warned that new backlogs could be on the horizon. In a rare commentary, the State Department noted that it had observed “increased I-526E petition approvals” and warned that it “may become necessary to establish Dates for Filing and Final Action Dates during the fiscal year” in the set-aside categories.
Such advance notice is typical: The Visa Bulletin often flags emerging pressure several months before a backlog is formally announced, allowing investors to prepare.
The inclusion of this language signals that both USCIS and the State Department are actively monitoring I-526E receipts, approvals, and consular demand, with particular attention being paid to the formation of a backlog.
Still, USCIS appears reluctant to impose retrogression based on theoretical demand. Instead, the agency seems to be waiting until actual issued EB-5 visas approach the annual numerical limit.
As mentioned above, the slow adjudication of urban filings has meant that even large pools of I-526Es have translated into a relatively small number of visa-ready cases each month.
And notably, while rural processing has far outpaced urban, the rural category’s increased number of visas has cushioned that category against near-term pressure.
What’s Next for EB-5 Investors?
We can’t know for certain when the next EB-5 backlog will materialize. Several variables interact to determine this, including the month-to-month pace of USCIS approvals, the share of those approvals belonging to each nationality, and the proportion of applicants choosing rural versus urban.
Still, the trajectory is clear. Filings continue to outpace adjudications, and approval rates—currently at a historic 97%—suggest that most petitions will eventually be approved.
Given the steady filing momentum from the two largest EB-5 markets, China and India, and the finite visa pools for each nationality, it is likely a matter of when, not if, new cut-off dates are set.
The data supports a relatively optimistic outlook for the rural category for now: Rural adjudications surged past 1,100 by January 2025, yet fewer than half of the annual rural visas were claimed. EB5AN’s own portfolio illustrates the point: Our clients accounted for roughly a fifth of all rural approvals in 2023 and 2024, and their average adjudication time has already fallen to eight to ten months, with one recent approval coming as quickly as 6.5 months.
Urban, on the other hand, has seen only a trickle of approvals since February 2023. Assuming USCIS eventually redirects resources to these cases, any sudden uptick in approvals could quickly consume the smaller urban allocation.
For Chinese and Indian investors, these scenarios are important. Both groups already face non-reserved backlogs dating to the pre-RIA era. Unsurprisingly, many have chosen rural and urban TEA projects to capitalize on new visa pools and shorter timelines.
Still, the per-country limit set by Congress—roughly 7% of the total EB-5 allocation—remains unchanged. When rural or urban visa issuance to one country approaches that ceiling, the State Department must impose a cut-off even if the overall category has unused visas.
Investors’ derivative beneficiaries—their spouses and children who also receive Green Cards through an I-526E filing—further use up EB-5 visas. Because every eligible family member counts against the quota, a single successful petition can lead to multiple visas being issued.
Strategic Approaches for EB-5 Investors
Filing Form I-526E as early as practical secures the best possible priority date. Applicants already present in the United States should be sure to file Form I-485 concurrently with Form I-526E, obtaining work and travel authorization (sometimes in a few short weeks) while awaiting their Green Cards.
Investors in the urban queue might discuss mandamus litigation with their immigration counsel. Although a writ of mandamus entails additional cost and procedural risk, it can force USCIS to adjudicate a pending I-526E far more quickly. For those facing substantial wait times, mandamus action may be the only recourse.
Chinese and Indian investors, especially those who live abroad, should consider investing in rural projects. Priority processing for rural cases is translating into real-world approvals within a year, as EB5AN’s data demonstrates. While our investors received 208 of the 1,126 rural approvals recorded by USCIS through January 2025, that number has ballooned to a total of 360 approvals as of May 2025—a 73% increase in only a few short months.
Of course, investors and their immigration counsel should keep a close eye on the monthly Visa Bulletins for any further warnings of backlogs or the issuance of actual cut-off dates.
For further guidance on the EB-5 process or how to avoid visa retrogression, schedule a free consultation with EB5AN.
