The EB-5 market is constantly changing, and if you do not have up-to-date information, you could make a misguided investment decision. Current information is key.
For example, new data just released by USCIS clearly shows that the urban TEA EB-5 visa set-aside category is oversubscribed for investors from several countries. Even though USCIS has not announced visa retrogression yet, the data is clear.
EB-5 investors should review the data themselves, make commonsense assumptions based on historical figures, and come up with their own conclusions. It is critical for investors to understand the data and make the decision that is best for them.
At EB5AN, we believe that more information and transparency are always better. That’s why we are committed to putting our EB-5 investors first, even when new information becomes available that could negatively impact us financially.
This commitment to transparency is not an empty promise. The new USCIS data shows that the demand for the urban TEA category has drastically outpaced supply—and because we sponsor urban TEA projects, this directly impacts us. In truth, the new data impacts everyone in the EB-5 industry. Still, despite this impact, we believe it is our responsibility to share this information.
On the other hand, some regional centers, EB-5 agents, and even immigration attorneys are not making this vital information known to EB-5 investors. This is wrong.
We are also seeing other EB-5 professionals say that the data is inconclusive. We 100% agree that assumptions have to be made—but, fortunately, these assumptions are not just baseless. We can draw conclusions based on historical data and common sense.
As a company, based on our direct experience, we know EB-5 application volumes have remained steady or increased over the last four months compared to the prior quarter of data available. The industry has decades of historical averages of the number of visas required per petition and approval rates.
In this article, we briefly explain the new data and what it means for investors. Then, we discuss why some in the EB-5 industry may not be sharing the new data or distracting investors from the evident backlog for the urban TEA category. Finally, we suggest steps you can take to review the data and make a fully informed decision.
The New USCIS Data on Reserved EB-5 Visas and What It Means for Indian and Chinese EB-5 Investors
Why Regional Centers, EB-5 Agents, and Immigration Attorneys Are Not Sharing This Data
What You Can Do to Protect Yourself
The New USCIS Data on Reserved EB-5 Visas and What It Means for Indian and Chinese EB-5 Investors
New data has been released by USCIS as a result of multiple Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests by the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA). This new data shows that, from April 2022 to October 2023, more than 2,000 EB-5 investors filed Form I-526E applications for urban TEA projects. Notably, each application can represent multiple visas because it is filed for the investor, his or her spouse, and their qualifying children.
As a result, by using historical figures and projecting steady-state demand for the four-month period until the end of February, we estimate that the total number of EB-5 visas actually needed for urban TEA investors through February 2024 is over 7,000.
The problem is that there are only 1,000 urban TEA EB-5 visas available per year on a consistent basis. Currently, we have excess visas carried over from the previous fiscal year and more than 10,000 EB-5 visa numbers in the past two fiscal years.
While these excess visas will disappear in the near future, these numbers clearly show that the demand for urban TEA EB-5 visas now exceeds supply.
Because there are not enough visas available for urban TEA investors and their families, the urban TEA category has become oversubscribed. The extent of the backlog and how it will impact investors from different countries is yet to be fully seen.
Because most urban TEA investors are Chinese or Indian, these countries will be impacted first. Other countries may follow.
Why Some Regional Centers, EB-5 Agents, and Immigration Attorneys Are Not Sharing This Data
The significance of this new data cannot be overstated. EB-5 investors—especially those from India and China—who invest in urban TEA projects may now face years of delays. Regional centers, brokers, and immigration attorneys should not withhold this critical information from potential EB-5 investors.
But some are. Why? We believe that any EB-5 industry professional who does not share this new data with you and explain what it means is either unaware of the data—which is unlikely—or unwilling to share it because it conflicts with their financial incentives.
Urban TEA projects have historically been much more popular than rural TEA projects. Therefore, urban TEA projects have produced much more financial gains in the EB-5 industry.
Some EB-5 industry professionals also claim that the newly released data is incomplete or “not perfect” and argue that no conclusions can be drawn from the data. This argument doesn’t make sense—data sets are rarely perfect. This is a weak excuse to avoid making predictions and coming to the obvious conclusion—based on any reasonable set of assumptions—that the urban TEA category is already backlogged for many years for new Chinese and Indian EB-5 investors.
They May Not Be Paying Attention
While we believe this scenario is unlikely, we do not want to assume the worst in others. Some regional centers, brokers, and immigration attorneys may still be unaware of the new data published by USCIS. If this is the case, they are not paying close attention to industry news. Additionally, some industry members are not inclined toward data analysis. While data analysis may not be a strong point for some, they cannot claim that the data is inconclusive.
If you are considering investing in an urban TEA project and no one has told you about the new data and how the urban TEA category is full, you need to ask why you have not been given this information.
They Have a Financial Incentive
Unfortunately, some in the industry may be intentionally misleading EB-5 investors. It is unethical for a regional center, broker, or immigration attorney who is aware of the new reserved EB-5 visa data to withhold this information from a prospective investor.
You should be wary of anyone in the industry who suggests they were not aware the urban TEA visa category is full. Most have a financial motive to keep this information hidden. Additionally, you should be wary of those who truly weren’t aware of this issue, as they clearly aren’t monitoring the industry closely enough to provide helpful advice to potential EB-5 investors.
The Data Is Not Perfect
The official data that was released is not perfect. Some basic assumptions (such as the number of visas used per EB-5 investor) need to be made to calculate the number of required visas and compare that with the number of available visas. Still, we do have reliable EB-5 data for previous years.
For example, we know the past EB-5 visa utilization statistics per investor for China, India, and other countries. We can easily use this previous data to apply a realistic visa multiplier to the newly released data. Then, using these numbers, we can make informed predictions for the most likely outcomes.
What You Can Do to Protect Yourself
The best defense against being misled is being informed. This is true of the current situation with urban TEA visas. If you are considering an urban TEA project, you need to ask your immigration attorney to explain the risks based on your nationality.
Getting accurate information from your immigration attorney is vital. For this reason, you need to hire an independent, highly qualified immigration attorney. Not all immigration attorneys specialize in the EB-5 visa—you need to find one who does. He or she should have extensive experience and a proven track record of success with other EB-5 investors. And your attorney should be independent, which means he or she does not represent any regional center or project you are interested in.
Before making an EB-5 investment, you need to do careful research. To help you make an informed choice, we provide a number of articles and other resources for EB-5 investors.
Finally, you can protect yourself by asking direct questions in writing. Request written answers. If a regional center or EB-5 project developer has nothing to hide, they will have no problem answering all of your questions in this manner.
If you have further questions or would like help understanding the new data and how it impacts you, feel free to schedule a one-on-one consultation. We would be happy to help you move forward in your EB-5 journey.
